Click to Use Secure Login
All Available Packages
NOTICE: If you can not view the forum, you may need to log out of and log back in to recreate your forum session.

NFL Handicapper Free Betting Pick: New York Jets at New England Patriots

12.30.2017     06:51 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
NY Jets at New England
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener: New England -16 o/U 46
CRIS Current: New England -14.5 O/U 43.5
Recommendation: New England

Incredibly, the New England Patriots are STILL an undervalued commodity at this stage of the campaign and at this stage of the franchise trajectory. Sure, the Pats won their fifth Super Bowl title in the Brady/Belichick era last February. Sure, the Pats are on pace to snare another #1 seed in the AFC with a victory here — this is most assuredly NOT a meaningless game for the home favorite. If they lose, they probably head to Pittsburgh for the AFC Championship Game, and I’m SURE that’s motivation enough. And yet the markets have been consistently behind New England’s capabilities all season, just like they’ve been in every recent season.

The Patriots went 13-3 ATS last year and covered the spread in all three of their playoff wins as well. This year, following their 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS start, guess what — the Pats have been the best pointspread team in football. They’re 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine ballgames, winning by margins of 17 or more on six different occasions. How is this possible? Simple — wiseguys control the betting marketplace and wiseguys aren’t betting New England. Ever.

The Patriots statistical profile is mediocre, in large part due to some dicey yards per play numbers on defense. The Pats have allowed 5.8 yards per play this year, tied for #31 in the NFL defensively. Obviously, if you’ve watched the Patriots, you know that this isn’t the #31 defense in the NFL, not even close. In fact, we are talking about a team that has allowed 17 points or less in nine of their last eleven games — a bet-on stop unit, not a bet-against one. But the markets react to statistics, and the stats continue to mislead the sharps — you know, the same guys who are betting ON the Browns every week because of Cleveland’s attractive stats.

Establishing that New England is an UNDER-valued commodity is a meaningful exercise, but Week 17 is not about stats — it’s about what teams are going to show up. For New England, we’ve got a pretty extensive Week 17 track record that shows the Pats go all out to win this week, just like any other week. Look no further than last year when they won their meaningless Week 17 game by three touchdowns. In fact, in their home finale, the Pats have won eight of their last nine by 14 points or more; seven of the nine by 17 points or more. This is a value laden team in a bet-on spot.

New England’s long term track record against bottom tier QBs is pretty darn impressive — Belichick eats weak QBs for breakfast. Bryce Petty is, most assuredly, a bottom tier QB: 47% completions, 4.4 yards per pass attempt. The Jets ran the ball for 197 yards last week, better than 6.5 yards per carry. They produced seven points off that effort, at home. In the cold of Foxboro, with all the pressure off Todd Bowles, after fighting the good fight all year the Jets are primed for an ugly blowout. Take the Patriots.

Tags: NFL New York Jets New England Patriots Teddy Covers

This blog is closed to new comments.

Visitor Comments:

Add Your Email Address:
How did you find us?

More VIP Email Options
Current Blog Topics
Ted Sevransky Hot Links
Current Blog Topics
SportsMemo Ads
Daily Plays

Extended Services
SportsMemo Ads
Discussion Forum
Post Subject
11.28 12:29
11.28 12:20
11.28 12:18
10.21 10:35
10.14 17:03

Current Blog
Ted Sevransky     01.12.2018 12:29 PM
Ted Sevransky     01.05.2018 8:42 AM
Ted Sevransky     12.30.2017 6:51 PM
Ted Sevransky     12.27.2017 9:06 AM
Ted Sevransky     12.17.2017 6:45 AM

More Blog Entries Submitted by Teddy Covers


Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, and Drew Martin. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at   Jan 16, 2018 07:34 PM.