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Big XII Championship Betting Preview: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Oklahoma Sooners

11.30.2017     12:22 PM     Drew Martin     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Drew Martin blog entry.
Big XII Championship
TCU vs. Oklahoma - Arlington, Texas
Saturday, 9:30 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener: Oklahoma -7 O/U 61.5
CRIS Current: Oklahoma -7 O/U 63.5
Recommendation: TCU

The inaugural Big XII Championship pits together two teams that are playing their best football of the year in recent weeks. Since losing at home to Iowa State as -31 chalk, Oklahoma has ripped off seven straight and covered four of its five. TCU’s only two blemishes came against Iowa State and Saturday’s opponent, Oklahoma. Three weeks ago, as -6 home chalk, the Sooners beat the Horned Frogs, 38-20.

In terms of the ability to adjust not only game-to-game, but half-to-half, few are as good as TCU’s Gary Patterson. After falling behind to Oklahoma 38-14 at half, the Horned Frogs pitched a shutout in the second half. Amazingly, TCU has allowed a grand total of six points in the second half of its last seven games. And prior to that loss, the series had been ultra competitive with margins of 7, 6, 4, 3, and 1. Statistically, it's impressive what Oklahoma has been able to do. Against Big XII foes, the Sooners were a staggering 2.4 yards per play better. Few power conference teams own such a discrepancy. But despite that, OU wasn’t as consistently dominant on the scoreboard. There was the lackluster 49-41 win over Baylor. The loss as huge chalk to Iowa State. A narrow 29-24 win over rival Texas. A touchdown win against an average Kansas State squad. And a wild back-and-forth 62-52 win over Oklahoma State that was decided by a big play with less than a minute to go.

Oklahoma will not have the benefit of a night game in Norman on Saturday. And the markets have made a significant adjustment from just three weeks ago. Oklahoma closed -6 at home and now you can get TCU +7 on true neutral environment. I strongly believe in Patterson’s ability to gameplan and feel his squad, particularly the defense, will do what it takes to stick around in this game and have a shot at the “upset.” Take the points.


Tags: College Football TCU Horned Frogs Oklahoma Sooners Big XII Drew Martin

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