San Diego (Cahill) +148 at San Francisco (Samardzija) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: San Diego
What's the old saying? You'll never make money betting on bad teams? That's not always true as all teams, both good and bad, can offer value. But I do subscribe to it being tough to make money backing bad MLB teams as sizable chalk. It's not even August, and every coach and player for the San Francisco Giants is counting the days until this disaster of a season is over. After last night's loss (as -200 favorites) the Giants sit at 37-60. Tonight, Jeff Samardzija and his much ballyhooed K-to-BB ratio take the hill. He's no doubt pitched better than a 4.86 ERA but he's also coughed up 20 home runs and hammered into submission last time out against these same Padres to the tune of seven runs over six innings. I'm shocked that San Diego hasn't moved Trevor Cahill who has everything you want in a midseason starting pitcher acquisition: K rate (11.1 per 9), GB rate (56.8%), 3.23 FIP, and most important, freshness with only 57.1 IP on the season. Those numbers probably won't last assuming he takes the hill every fifth day the remainder of the season. But right now, is there really a difference between what he brings to the table and Samardzija? And is there really a difference between either of these bottom feeder teams? The answer to both is no. Which is why grabbing nearly +150 with the underdog warrants a play.