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MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins

07.17.2017     09:04 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
New York (Mitchell) at Minnesota (Mejia) -102 O/U 10
Recommendation: Minnesota

Good situational spot here for the Twins as they get New York off of a grueling four game set at Boston which ended with a doubleheader yesterday. Reliever Bryan Mitchell is forced into the rotation tonight so the Yankees can keep their starters on normal rest. It’s uncertain how long Mitchell can go in this one since he’s only thrown 7.1 innings this season in his 12 relief appearances. Minnesota has a huge opportunity here if they can get to Mitchell and chase him early because the Yankees bullpen is extremely thin tonight. With their top three arms heavily used over the weekend, have to figure closer Aroldis Chapman (has thrown three straight days), setup man Dellin Betances (threw two of last three days) and Tyler Clippard (thrown back-to-back days) are all either unavailable or only if necessary. Either way, their effectiveness should be less than 100%. Add to that Adam Warren (pitched 2 of last 3 days) and Chase Shreve and Chad Green (have each pitched back-to-back days) and you can see the difficulties Joe Girardi faces with his pitching tonight.

Meanwhile, the Twins send 24-year-old Adalberto Mejia to the hill with a rested bullpen behind him. Mejia owns a 2.79 ERA over his last five starts which encompass 29 innings. Walks remain an issue for the LH as he’s now given 32 free passes in just 65 innings and he’s had some troubles at home owning a 5.62 ERA at Target Field. However, he has been tougher on right handed bats than lefties (.553 SLG% vs. LH/.429 vs RH) which bodes well here since New York power sources Aaron Judge & Gary Sanchez are righties. He’s allowed just 1 HR every 25 AB to right handed hitters. Overall he’ll need to give the Twins 5-6 solid innings in this contest and let Minnesota’s bullpen do the rest.

This is an important series for the Twins who sit just 1.5 games out of first place in the AL Central and the second Wild Card spot behind these Yankees. They seem to remain in pretty good form as indicated by playing the AL’s top team Houston very tough this weekend despite losing the series. The offense is likely to capitalize and put up a lot of runs in this spot which makes the cheap price worth taking.

Tags: MLB New York Yankees Minnesota Twins Rob Veno

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