Miami (Chen) at Seattle (Gallardo) -105 O/U 8.5
Two starts into the season and there isn't much to suggest Seattle Yovani Gallardo can return to being an above average MLB starter. Gallardo had some of the worst stats in the league last season (5.42 ERA/5.04 FIP) with the Orioles. In two outings for the Mariners, he lasted only 10 innings, allowed 15 hits, seven runs, and flashed a dismal 6/6 K-to-BB ratio. No matter what the venue or who the opponent, it's extremely difficult to trust Gallardo at this point in his career. The same could be said for Miami's Wei-Yin Chen. After a great four-year run in Baltimore (3.72 ERA), the 31-year-old appears to be on the downside of his career. Despite switching to the National League and getting to toss in a very pitcher friendly park, Chen regressed in a big way in 2016. Some of his struggles could be tied to an elbow problem that forced him to miss time. Reportedly healthy, Chen looked strong in his first start of the season (6 IP, 1 ER) against the Mets but turned right around six days later and was torched for six runs in three innings against the same lineup. Seattle hasn't exactly been crushing the baseball (.231/.308/.378/.685) and is without the services of one of its better weapons in Jean Segura (DL). That said, Chen's middling stuff offers an opportunity for a good night at the plate. With two average at best starters and a very reasonable total, we'll look to play over.