St. Louis (Lynn) at Washington (Gonzalez) -135 O/U 8.5
Promising start to the season for Washington's Gio Gonzalez who threw six scoreless innings and punched out seven batters against the Miami Marlins. No longer blessed with a plus fastball, Gonzalez has rightfully earned the rep of being all-or-nothing. He pitched far better than his 4.57 ERA last season and should continue to benefit from pitching coach Mike Maddux. Today's matchups should yield positive results as St. Louis' offensive is off to a slow start. The Cards have already been shutout twice as well as held to single run. They managed to pound around Cincinnati's Bronson Arroyo but outside of that, have produced little to no offense. That includes two games against lefty starters Jon Lester and rookie Amir Garrett in which St. Louis plated only a single run.
Lance Lynn was solid in his return from Tommy John surgery. Lynn, who missed all of 2016, allowed two runs in 5.1 IP against the Cubs. He did however throw 98 pitches and recorded only five swinging strikes. His velocity, which was a concern during spring training, was also down a tick from where it was at pre-surgery. You leave the door open for Lynn to regain his form but for now, he remains a work in progress. Lynn has also shown a strong career home/road dichotomy with an OPS against over over 100 points higher on the highway. We'll look to back Washington at the moderate home price as Gonzalez appears to have a solid edge over Lynn.