Fresno State +4.5 at Boise State O/U 147
Recommendation: Fresno State
Entirely different betting directions being taken by these teams as Fresno State is on a 3-0 ATS and 4-0 O/U run while Boise has current streaks of 0-6 ATS and 4-0 O/U. The conflicting trends combined with the earlier 89-80 Fresno win way back on January 14 give no immediate handicapping edge to a certain side or total. However, there are some additional technical trends that directly point to the visiting Bulldogs here. The strongest are Boise’s 0-6 ATS mark in its last six home games and 0-5 record as a favorite since January 25. Fresno meanwhile has gone 6-3 ATS as a road underdog and the underdog in this series is 7-3 over the last 10 meetings.
The fundamentals are close but Fresno does have a distinct advantage on the defensive glass while Boise is the better three point shooting team. In the first game, Fresno had six double digit scorers, shot 22/38/57.9% from two-point range and went to the free throw line 43 times (+13 attempts, +11 points). Boise on the other hand shot nearly 50% of their field goal attempts (31 of 63) from beyond the arc netting 36 points but could not get much inside the paint or on guard penetration.
It’s senior night in Boise and they’ll celebrate starting forward Nick Duncan and sixth man James Reid but this game has conference tourney seeding implications and Fresno appears tough enough to handle the festivities. Figure the visiting Bulldogs to focus on defending the arc which is Boise’s main weapon. Like the Fresno backcourt quickness and interior toughness in this matchup so +4.5 is worth taking.