San Diego (Kennedy) -120 at NY Mets (Matsuzaka) O/U 7
Recommendation: San Diego
The Padres and pitching coach Darren Balsley have done great work with this afternoon’s expected started Ian Kennedy. Kennedy struggled with the Arizona Diamondbacks last season before he was traded at the July 31st deadline to the Padres. The struggles continued for the right-hander after he was traded as he posted an overall 4.91 ERA in 2013. However, Kennedy still possessed good stuff and wasn’t too far removed from the 21-4 record and 2.88 ERA of 2011. Prior to this season Kennedy and Balsley were able to make key adjustments and we’ve seen an uptick in velocity and more of a reliance on the curveball. Kennedy’s strikeouts are up, walks are down, and he’s clearly outpitched (3.02 xFIP) his current 3.63 ERA and 5-7 W-L record. Meanwhile, the 33-year-old Daisuke Matsuzaka will be making his fourth start of the season for the Mets. His 2.95 ERA is sparkling, but I seriously doubt that number will hold up in the long run. He still struggles with efficiency with and alarming 28 walks in 39 frames this year. It will be five or six innings of marginal pitching at best for Dice-K, while the Mets’ bullpen continues to be a mess. Take the Padres on Sunday afternoon.
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