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College Football Betting Preview: Virginia Cavaliers at North Carolina Tar Heels

10.13.2017     09:07 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Virginia at North Carolina
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT
CRIS Opener: Virginia -2.5 O/U 55
CRIS Current: Virginia -3.5 O/U 51
Recommendation: Virginia

Give North Carolina credit for hanging as tough as possible last week versus Notre Dame before finally tiring defensively en-route to their 33-10 loss. The lack of offensive playmakers combined with the on the job training of redshirt freshman quarterback Chaz Surratt continues to take its toll on the defense which has now been on the field for an average of 81 plays the past three weeks. There’s no letup in sight this week with Virginia marching into Kenan Stadium with their high tempo 76.8 total plays per game offense. The Cavaliers also appear to be rounding into the form of a hard-nosed Bronco Mendenhall style defense as evidenced by their pair of recent efforts which held Boise State to a season low 23 points and Duke to a season low 255 total yards.

Focus doesn’t figure to be a problem for either side here since this is a heated rivalry but in the case of UNC, effort is only going so far at this point. Read more

Tags: College Football Virginia Cavaliers North Carolina Tar Heels ACC Rob Veno

College Football Betting Preview: Ole Miss Rebels at California Golden Bears

09.15.2017     11:43 AM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports blog entry.
Ole Miss at California
Saturday, 7:30 pm PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener: Ole Miss -3.5 O/U 72
CRIS Current: Ole Miss -3.5 O/U 71.5
Recommendation: Under

California's defense is not going to be fixed overnight. The bad recruiting, bad coaching, and bad habits from the Sonny Dykes era are bound to linger. The good news is through two games, the Golden Bears are nearly a yard per play better than last season. And while last week's win over FCS Weber State doesn't look all that impressive (the Wildcats rolled up 571 yards), I look more to Week 1's results as Cal went on the road and held North Carolina to less than 5 yards per play. The Tar Heels lost a lot of offensive firepower but they also managed to hang 35 points and 6.5 yards per play the following week against Louisville.

Back in 2014 and 2015, Ole Miss' defense was a top-tier unit as it posted season averages of 4.7 and 4.9 yards per allowed, respectively. They took a big step back last year as teams rolled up over 6 yards per play and the Rebels finished a dismal 5-7. This year's unit has been average thus far as Read more

Tags: College Football Ole Miss Rebels SEC California Golden Bears PAC-12 OTTO Sports

College Football Betting: Reactions abound following Week 1's results

09.05.2017     12:10 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The biggest obstacle for college football bettors this week is what to make of Week 1's results. A lot of teams looked and performed far different than their preseason expectations. Below is a quick look at those teams that had "abnormal" Week 1 results and how the betting markets reacted.

Oregon - Crushed FCS Southern Utah 77-21. Opened -10 vs. Nebraska and immediately pounded to -14. The Cornhuskers were outgained in their 43-36 win over Arkansas State

Northwestern - Limped past rebuilding Nevada, 31-20. The Wildcats trailed 17-7 at half. This week's opponent, Duke, rolled over FCS NC Central, 60-7. The game opened a pick 'em with Northwestern now favored by -3.5.

East Carolina - No shame in losing to FCS James Madison as the Dukes are currently the top team in the country. But the manner in which the Pirates lost is perhaps alarming: JMU outgained ECU 614-367. ECU's Week 2 opponent, West Virginia, opened -19.5 and is now -24.

North Carolina - Laying -12.5 at home to rebuilding Cal, the Tar Heels lost 35-30. Week 2's foe, Louisville, was bet up from -6.5 to Read more

Tags: College Football

College Football Betting Preview: California Golden Bears at North Carolina Tar Heels

08.31.2017     11:46 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Calfornia at North Carolina
Saturday, 9:20 am PT - ACC Network
CRIS Opener: North Carolina -12.5 O/U 66
CRIS Current: North Carolina -13 O/U 55
Recommendation: Under

The overhaul at California is enormous. The Golden Bears have a new Head Coach in Justin Wilcox who is defensive minded which is the polar opposite of his predecessor Sonny Dykes. There is a new offensive system which is an up-tempo “spread” but very different from the “Bear Raid” employed here the past four seasons. Ex-Eastern Washington OC Beau Baldwin’s scheme is far more multiple and unlike the prior offense run here, it comes with a complex playbook. On the other side of the ball, Cal has scrapped the 4-3 in favor of defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter’s 3-4 alignment. The switch brings position changes, new assignments and the possibility that the talent on hand doesn’t completely fit the way it will down the road after a couple of more recruiting classes. While on paper 2017 does not look to be a great defensive season for California, it likely can’t be Read more

Tags: College Football California Golden Bears PAC-12 North Carolina Tar Heels ACC Rob Veno

College Football Handicapping: North Carolina attempts to reload entire offense

08.01.2017     09:14 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
A lot of roster turnover, particularly on offense, for the North Carolina Tar Heels this season. And don't sleep on the loss of defensive coordinator Gene Chizik (resigned). The year prior to Chizik arriving, UNC ranked dead last in the ACC in yards per play allowed in conference play (6.28). Last season, a semi-respectable ninth (5.47 ypp). The Tar Heels open the season as -12.5 home chalk vs. California.

 “Never,” he said recently, contemplating the work ahead, both for his coaching staff and his offense. “Not to this extent. They said it was 90-something percent of the offensive production left. I don’t know how many guys have ever done that. So at least nobody that I’ve reached out to. So it’s – we’ll see.”

Tags: College Football North Carolina Tar Heels ACC

NCAA Tournament Handicapping: University of Phoenix Stadium could be tough on shooters

03.29.2017     09:42 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
We blogged earlier this week about the unique court layout of University of Phoenix Stadium where this weekend's Final Four will be held. Generally, 3-point shooting is a good indicator of whether or not a venue is "shooter friendly." Back in 2009, the venue hosted three NCAA Tournament games and the results from deep weren't pretty. Teams were a combined 25-for-92, 27%. The good news is three of the four remaining teams don't rely heavily on the 3-point shot.

2009 NCAA Tournament Region 3-point shooting
Missouri-Memphis: 9-for-31
Missouri-UConn: 7-for-30
Purdue-UConn: 9-for-31
Total: 25-for-92, 27%

Percentage of points from 3 (national rank)
North Carolina 25.3% (293rd)
Gonzaga 26.2% (275th)
South Carolina 27.2% (255th)
Oregon 32.9% (105th)

Tags: College Basketball

NCAA Tournament Handicapping: North Carolina Tar Heels favored to win title

03.27.2017     09:07 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
And then there were four. This weekend's Final Four matchups are set with South Carolina taking on Gonzaga and Oregon squaring off against North Carolina. The Tar Heels are +150 to win the title followed by Gonzaga (+170), Oregon (+475) and South Carolina (+875).

The remaining three games will take place at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. It's obviously a massive structure that will be modified to accommodate the small playing field compared to football. There hasn't been a lot of high profile basketball played at the venue. The only one we came across was the 2009 NCAA Tournament Regional. Here's a bunch of photos that show the layout.


Tags: College Basketball North Carolina Tar Heels South Carolina Gamecocks Gonzaga Bulldogs Oregon Duck

NCAA Tournament Gambling Update: Sweet Sixteen field is set, UNC new tourney favorite

03.20.2017     07:30 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The NCAA Tournament's Sweet Sixteen field is set with games later this week on Thursday and Friday. According to William Hill, North Carolina is your new tournament favorite at 4/1. Below are the adjusted odds for all 16 teams.

North Carolina 4/1
Kansas 9/2
Arizona 9/2
UCLA 13/2
Gonzaga 7/1
Kentucky 8/1
Florida 15/1
Oregon 15/1
Michigan 15/1
Baylor 18/1
West Virginia 18/1
Purdue 20/1
Wisconsin 20/1
Butler 30/1
Xavier 75/1
South Carolina 75/1

Tags: College Basketball North Carolina Tar Heels

College Basketball Betting: Whoever wins this year's title is likely to be elite on the defensive end

03.02.2017     09:49 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
They say that defense wins championships and nowhere is this more true than college basketball. Below is a list of the last 15 National Champions and their defensive efficiency and rank. You'll notice a common theme; all but one of them finished in the top 20. The lone exception was North Carolina who finished 21st and it should be noted the Tar Heels boasted the nation's top offensive efficiency. One of the reasons we pointed this out is that UCLA is among those currently favored to cut down the nets. Most sportsbooks have the Bruins lumped in with Gonzaga, Villanova, North Carolina and Kansas as the "first tier." What stands out is UCLA isn't in the top 20 in defensive efficiency. They aren't even in the top 50. To their credit, the Bruins have improved on the defensive end but with a week to go in the regular season, they currently rank 90th at 1.00 points per possession allowed. No champion during that 15-year span has allowed over 0.90 ppp; though that could change this year as only four teams (Virginia, South Carolina, Gonzaga and Florida) are holding teams to less than 0.90 ppp.

Year - Champion (Defensive Efficiency Read more

Tags: College Basketball

College Basketball Betting: Virginia a rare home underdog to North Carolina

02.27.2017     09:35 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
It's been a long time since Virginia was a home underdog like it is tonight against North Carolina. The Cavaliers were last catching points on their home court back in 2012 when the Tar Heels were laying -3.5 and won 54-51. But it looks as if the betting markets are starting to sour on this squad after losing four of five including a 65-41 blowout loss at UNC back on Feb. 18. The normally efficient Cavs have really struggled to score of late; 0.92 points per possession over their last five games. UNC opened -1.5 but has since been bet up to -3.5.

Tags: College Basketball Virginia Cavaliers North Carolina Tar Heels ACC


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