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September

23

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NFL Handicapping: Bengals get steamed up to -6.5 for TNF matchup vs. Texans

09.13.2017     08:43 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here's something you don't see often. Team A closes as -2.5 Week 1 home chalk and proceeds to lose 20-0. Team A opens -3.5 home chalk for Week 2 and proceeds to get bet up to -6.5. That's the situation for the Cincinnati Bengals who play host to the Houston Texans on Thursday. But the Cinci "love" could perhaps also be Houston "hate" after the Texans were blitzed by Jacksonville at home, 29-7. Not to mention all of the off-the-field distractions with Hurricane Harvey. Oh yeah, don't forget rookie Deshaun Watson is expected to start.

Since 2000, NFL teams that were shutout at home are 25-13 (65.8%) ATS their next game. However, since teams that get blanked at home generally aren't very good, the straight up record is only 16-22.




Tags: NFL Houston Texans Cincinnati Bengals




NFL Preseason Gambling: Texans begin process of figuring out who will play quarterback

08.09.2017     08:18 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Houston Texans head coach Bill O'Brien discussed what he wants from his team -- particularly quarterbacks -- during tonight's preseason opener at Carolina. The Texans have taken a fair amount of money; bet from +3 to pick 'em at many offshore sportsbooks. Under O'Brien, the Texans are 8-4 ATS and 3-9 O/U in the preseason.


“Tom is going to start the game. Deshaun will play and Brandon will play,” Houston head coach Bill O’Brien said. “You have no idea how the game’s going to play out. You know what I mean? How long is this drive? How long is that drive? You have to play it by ear relative to how the game goes. But, all three quarterbacks will play in the game.”

“Playing everybody. Everybody that’s able to play, will play,” said O’Brien, is his fourth season with the Texans, having led the Texans to three straight 9-7 seasons, including AFC South titles the last two campaigns. “If they go out there and if they play well, maybe we’ll take

Read more



Tags: NFL Houston Texans Carolina Panthers




NFL Handicapping: A look at this weekend's four Divisional Round matchups

01.09.2017     12:19 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Atlanta’s offense was both visually and statistically (33.8 ppg and 415.8 ypg) dominant for much of the season. They play host to a Seattle defense that obviously has a strong pedigree, particularly in the secondary. But that dominant secondary has been exposed at times this year and was recently dealt a key injury with Pro Bowl safety Earl Thomas out. Detroit couldn’t take advantage of Thomas’ absence as it was clear Matthew Stafford was not 100 percent due to a dislocated finger. And the Lions’ offensive line was banged up and missing two starters. In the end, the Seahawks surrendered only 231 total yards. It will be a much more difficult task this weekend as Atlanta’s offense is in a far better position to successfully move the football. Matt Ryan (38 TDs, 7 INTs, 69.9% completion rate) has a host of skill position weapons and like we saw against Arizona and Green Bay, Seattle can be exposed through the air. There are questions about Atlanta’s defense which ranked in the bottom third of the league in a number of categories. After struggling to run the football for virtually the entire regular season, Thomas Rawls went for 161 yards against Read more



Tags: NFL Atlanta Falcons Seattle Seahawks Houston Texans New England Patriots Pittsburgh Steelers Kansas City Chiefs Green Bay Packers Dallas Cowboys Ian Cameron




NFL Gambling: Questionable quarterbacks highlight Wild Card matchups

01.05.2017     10:22 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
This weekend's four Wild Card matchups feature four quarterbacks with Super Bowl rings. It also features a backup, a failed starter who may have lucked into getting his job back, and a third string rookie.

Miami's Matt Moore has looked semi-viable and will get the nod against Pittsburgh.


"Unless something changes drastically here in the next two days or three days, he's going into this thing as the starter," Gase said of Moore.



Houston's Brock Osweiler, who last time out got into a "heated exchange" with head coach Bill O'Brien, is slated to go against Oakland.


"What happens between Coach O'Brien and myself or whatever's said between Coach O'Brien and myself, it stays between us," Osweiler said. "That's where I'm going to leave that. My focus has moved toward Oakland."

Read more



Tags: NFL Houston Texans Oakland Raiders Miami Dolphins




NFL Gambling: Previewing all four Wild Card round matchups

01.03.2017     12:21 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Saturday’s Oakland-Houston matchup is likely to be decided by which team can produce adequate quarterback play. Derek Carr suffered a season-ending injury in Week 16 against Indianapolis and in Sunday’s loss to Denver, Matt McGloin left the game with a left shoulder injury and is highly doubtful. That means bettors are likely to see rookie Connor Cook under center for a Raiders team playing in their first playoff game since 2002. Things aren’t much clearer for Houston with Tom Savage experiencing concussion symptoms and currently questionable. Savage’s status essentially forced Bill O’Brien into going back to the well with Brock Osweiler. Oakland had a noticeable lack of spirit in the loss to Denver despite having a with a chance to win the AFC West and earn a first round bye. The Raiders were physically manhandled by a Broncos team that was already eliminated from the playoffs. The biggest handicapping factor for this game is whether or not Oakland has the belief it can win a playoff game after seeing its top two quarterbacks go down with injuries. It makes sense why the total in this game is the lowest of the four games this weekend with most Read more



Tags: NFL Oakland Raiders Houston Texans Detroit Lions Seattle Seahawks Miami Dolphins Pittsburgh Steelers New York Giants Green Bay Packers Ian Cameron




Using Strength of Schedule to Handicap the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs

01.02.2017     09:24 AM     Printer Friendly
The theory is actually quite simple; since 2002, teams with a higher Strength of Schedule (using Sagarin’s Ratings) are a remarkable 40-16 straight up and 40-15-1 against the spread (73% winners) regardless of price and location. Even more amazing is that teams with a SOS differential of 10 or more went 23-4 SU, 22-4-1 ATS (85% winners). Taking it step further, teams with a better SOS that are underdogs went 16-12 SU, 21-6 ATS. Underdogs with a SOS rating of 10 or better went 10-4 SU and 11-3 ATS. This is not a perfect science when it comes to grading plays. For example, last year the Steelers were -2/-2.5 and won 18-16. That said, with 14 years of results, this is one of the strongest publically known NFL trends available.

NFL Wildcard Playoff Strength of Schedule Betting Trend 2002-15
Year
Away (SOS)
Home (SOS)
Score
SOS SU
SOS ATS
2015
Kansas City (14) -3
Houston (26)
KC 30, HOU 0
Win
Win
2015
Pittsburgh (10)
Cincinnati (15) +2.5
PIT 18, CIN 16
Win
Loss
2015
Seattle (13)
Minnesota (12) +5.5
SEA 10, MIN 9
Loss
Win
2015
Green Bay (9) +1
Washington (24)
GB 35, WAS 18
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2014
Arizona (10)
Carolina (22) -5.5
CAR 27, ARI 16
Loss
Loss
2014
Baltimore (29) +3
Pittsburgh (30)
BAL 30, PIT 17
Win
Win
2014
Detroit (23) +6
Dallas (31)
DAL 24, DET 20
Loss
Win
2014
Cincinnati (18)
Indianapolis (24) -3.5
IND 26, CIN 10
Loss
Loss
 
 
 
 
 
 
2013
Kansas City (26)
Indianapolis (11) +2
IND 45, KC 44
Win
Win
2013
New Orleans (8) +3
Philadelphia (28)
NO 26, PHI 24
Win
Win
2013
San Diego (19) +6
Cincinnati (27)
SD 27, CIN 10
Win
Win
2013
San Francisco (7) -3
Green Bay (30)
SF 23, GB 20
Win
Push
 
 
 
 
 
 
2012
Cincinnati (31)
Houston (27) -4.5
HOU 19, CIN 13
Win
Win
2012
Minnesota (6) +8
Green Bay (8)
GB 24, MIN 10
Loss
Loss
2012
Indianapolis (32)
Baltimore (18) -6.5
BAL 24, IND 9
Win
Win
2012
Seattle (5) -3
Washington (15)
SEA 24, WAS 14
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2011
Cincinnati (23) +3
Houston (32)
HOU 31, CIN 10
Loss
Loss
2011
Detroit (4) +10.5
New Orleans (31)
NO 45, DET 28
Loss
Loss
2011
NY Giants (6) -3
Atlanta (21)
NYG 24, ATL 2
Win
Win
2011
Denver (8) +8
Pittsburgh (26)
DEN 29, PIT 23
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2010
New Orleans (25)
Seattle (28) +14.5
SEA 41, NO 36
Loss
Loss
2010
NY Jets (8) +1
Indianapolis (21)
NYJ 17, IND 16
Win
Win
2010
Baltimore (12) -3
Kansas City (32)
BAL 30, KC 7
Win
Win
2010
Green Bay (9) +1
Philadelphia (16)
GB 21, PHI 16
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2009
Philadelphia (13) +3.5
Dallas (14)
DAL 34, PHI 13
Loss
Loss
2009
Green Bay (32)
Arizona (28) +2.5
ARI 51, GB 45
Win
Win
2009
NY Jets (4) +2.5
Cincinnati (17)
NYJ 24, CIN 14
Win
Win
2009
Baltimore (10)
New England (6) -3.5
BAL 33, NE 14
Loss
Loss
 
 
 
 
 
 
2008
Baltimore (3) -3.5
Miami (26)
BAL 27, MIA 9
Win
Win
2008
Indianapolis (10) -1.5
San Diego (17)
SD 23, IND 17
Loss
Loss
2008
Philadelphia (5) -3
Minnesota (14)
PHI 26, MIN 14
Win
Win
2008
Atlanta (24)
Arizona (16) -1.5
ARI 30, ATL 24
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2007
NY Giants (2) +3
Tampa Bay (24)
NYG 24, TB 14
Win
Win
2007
Washington (1) +3
Seattle (35)
SEA 35, WAS 14
Loss
Loss
2007
Tennessee (18)
San Diego (6) -10.5
SD 17, TEN 6
Win
Win
2007
Jacksonville (13) -2.5
Pittsburgh (27)
JAX 31, PIT 29
Win
Loss
 
 
 
 
 
 
2006
NY Jets (8)
New England (4) -9.5
NE 37, NYJ 16
Win
Win
2006
Kansas City (17)
Indianapolis (5) -7
IND 23, KC 8
Win
Win
2006
NY Giants (9) +6.5
Philadelphia (21)
PHI 23, NYG 20
Loss
Win
2006
Dallas (23) +2.5
Seattle (30)
SEA 21, DAL 20
Loss
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2005
Carolina (24)
NY Giants (17) -3
CAR 23, NYG 0
Loss
Loss
2005
Washington (3) +1
Tampa Bay (32)
WAS 17, TB 10
Win
Win
2005
Pittsburgh (4) -3
Cincinnati (13)
PIT 31, CIN 17
Win
Win
2005
Jacksonville (25)
New England (8) -7.5
NE 28, JAX 3
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2004
Denver (14)
Indianapolis (11) -10
IND 49, DEN 24
Win
Win
2004
NY Jets (4) +7
San Diego (18)
NYJ 20, SD 17
Win
Win
2004
St. Louis (22) +3.5
Seattle (29)
STL 27, SEA 20
Win
Win
2004
Minnesota (21) +6.5
Green Bay (26)
MIN 31, GB 17
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2003
Dallas (18)
Carolina (13) -3
CAR 29, DAL 10
Win
Win
2003
Seattle (27)
Green Bay (23) -7.5
GB 33, SEA 27
Win
Loss
2003
Denver (19)
Indianapolis (4) -3
IND 41, DEN 10
Win
Win
2003
Tennessee (6) -1
Baltimore (28)
TEN 20, BAL 17
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2002
Cleveland (17) +8
Pittsburgh (20)
PIT 36, CLE 33
Loss
Win
2002
Indianapolis (28)
NY Jets (5) -6
NYJ 41, IND 0
Win
Win
2002
NY Giants (30)
San Francisco (11) -3
SF 39, NYG 38
Win
Loss
2002
Atlanta (6) +7
Green Bay (27)
ATL 27, GB 7
Win
Win
Results
 
 
 
40-16 SU
40-15-1 ATS
 

In 2002 the NFL expanded to its current format of 32 teams; eight divisions with four teams each. There wasn’t much upheaval as the league added the Houston Texans to the AFC and Seattle switched to the NFC. Two new divisions were created as the league kept the integrity of the established divisional rivalries pretty much intact. The playoff format was modified so that four division winners and two Read more



Tags: NFL




NFL Gambling News: Can the Minnesota Vikings continue to cover pointspreads?

10.10.2016     11:29 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
From 2010-13, the Minnesota Vikings were a middling organization with only one playoff appearance (2012) and three very unmemorable seasons under former head coach Leslie Frazier. Following Frazier’s departure, the team went out and hired highly respected Cincinnati defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer. The organization also selected quarterback Teddy Bridgewater in the first round of the 2014 draft. Bridgewater assumed the starting spot in Minnesota’s fourth game after Matt Cassel was placed on injured reserve with a broken foot. The Vikings took their lumps and finished the season an unassuming 7-9 but it was clear that Zimmer was a difference maker. In the NFL, straight up wins and losses are largely correlated to a team’s pointspread success. The fact the Minnesota won only seven games but posted a 10-6 against the spread record was for bettors, a positive sign.

The lumps of 2014 paid off in spade as Minnesota skyrocketed to an 11-5 record including the NFC North division crown the following year. What’s even more amazing is the rate in which this team covered numbers. The Vikings went 4-1 ATS in the preseason and 14-3 ATS in the regular season Read more



Tags: NFL Minnesota Vikings Ian Cameron




NFL Gambling Preview: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

10.01.2016     10:51 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Buffalo at New England
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
New England -6.5 O/U 43.5
CRIS Current: New England -7 O/U 43
Recommendation: Buffalo

The Patriots have survived the Tom Brady suspension pretty darn well, going 3-0 SU and ATS without their four time Super Bowl winning QB. But with Brady on the way back next week, facing a divisional rival with a real chip on their shoulder, I’m expecting the Patriots to be tested on Sunday in a clear flat spot for the home favorite.

New England doesn’t have a healthy quarterback right now. Jimmy Garappolo has been upgraded to probable, but he’s dealing with consistent pain from his shoulder injury. Jacoby Brissett has a bad thumb, and if the rookie third stringer gets playing time here, it’s probably good news for Buffalo backers.

And the Pats are an overvalued commodity this week. Think about their season. They started with an upset win over Arizona, devalued now because Arizona hasn’t looked anything like the elite squad they were last year in early season play. The Pats nearly blew a big lead against Miami, Read more



Tags: NFL Buffalo Bills New England Patriots Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: Houston's Watt out, O'Brien takes over offense

09.30.2016     10:29 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Houston's JJ Watt is out for the year and now head coach Bill O'Brien has taken over the team's play calling duties. The Texans are 2-1 but the offense is averaging a near league-worst 4.6 yards per play (29th) and newly acquired Brock Osweiler sports a dismal 72.2 QB rating. O'Brien was in charge of the offense in 2014 as the Texans averaged a respectable 23.3 ppg (14th).




Tags: NFL Houston Texans




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Ranking all 32 NFL teams heading into Week 1

09.06.2016     08:06 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The NFL Preseason is in the rear view mirror, with Week 1 kicking off on Thursday as Carolina travels to Denver as -3 road favorites.  Here’s how I have all 32 teams ranked heading into the regular season.

1. Carolina Panthers  - Cam Newton and Carolina’s offense are poised to rank among the most potent attacks in the NFL.  Watch out for the Funchess/Benjamin WR duo!

2. Seattle Seahawks - Russell Wilson gave an MVP caliber performance in 2015, but his ability to repeat that effort could be stunted by the Seahawks offensive line woes.

3. Green Bay Packers - The Packers come out of camp with a full complement of healthy weapons for Aaron Rodgers, good news after Rodgers numbers took a big hit without Jordy Nelson last year.

4. Arizona Cardinals - Arizona returns just about every key player on both sides of the ball from a team that ranked among the NFL’s elite in 2015.

5. New England Patriots - If Tom Brady was at quarterback, this team would be ranked #1.  But with Jimmy Garappolo behind center, the Pats take a modest tumble in my rankings.

6. Kansas City Chiefs - Andy Reid’s Read more



Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Denver Broncos Teddy Covers



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"Houston Texans'"

September

22


 
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